Skip to main content
The Economy page is the deepest macro layer in ClearView — Federal Reserve data that drives the multi-month cycles in risk assets, including crypto.

​
What you’ll see

The page presents four sections of FRED data, each covering a different dimension of the US economy. These are not daily-trading indicators — they’re the structural forces that determine whether markets are in a risk-on or risk-off regime for weeks to months.

​
Yield Curve

An interactive chart plotting 8 US Treasury maturities: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year. The 2s10s spread (10Y minus 2Y yield) is highlighted as the key summary number.
The yield curve is a long-duration signal. It does not predict next week’s BTC price. It tells you whether the macro backdrop over the next 6-18 months favors risk assets or not. Don’t use it for day trading — use it for position sizing and portfolio allocation.

​
Macro Snapshot

GDP Growth

Quarterly real GDP growth rate. The broadest measure of economic output. Above 2% is healthy; below 0% for two consecutive quarters is the textbook definition of recession.

CPI & Inflation

Consumer Price Index year-over-year. The Fed’s primary mandate is controlling this number. Above the 2% target = tighter policy = headwind for risk assets.

Unemployment

Unemployment rate. Low unemployment (~3-4%) supports consumer spending and risk appetite. Rising unemployment triggers fear of recession and risk-off flows.

Fed Funds Rate

The Federal Reserve’s target rate. The most important single number in finance. Higher rates = tighter financial conditions = headwind for speculative assets including crypto.
The snapshot includes 15 FRED indicators in total, covering employment, output, prices, and monetary policy. Each shows the latest value, prior value, and the series trend.

​
Fed Liquidity

Two time series spanning the last 2 years:
  • WALCL — the Federal Reserve’s total balance sheet. When the Fed buys assets (QE), this grows. When it sells (QT), this shrinks.
  • M2SL — the M2 money supply. The total amount of money circulating in the US economy including checking accounts, savings, and money market funds.

​
Inflation

Two 2-year time series:
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index) — year-over-year change. The headline inflation number that markets react to on release day.
  • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — year-over-year change. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which tends to run slightly lower than CPI.
The Fed watches PCE more than CPI, but the market reacts to CPI more dramatically because it’s released first. If CPI comes in hot, expect an immediate reaction in crypto. Then watch the PCE release 1-2 weeks later — if PCE tells a different story, the CPI reaction may reverse.

​
Data sources

MetricSourceUpdate frequency
Yield curve (8 maturities)FRED — DGS1MO, DGS3MO, DGS6MO, DGS1, DGS2, DGS5, DGS10, DGS30Daily
Macro snapshot (15 series)FRED — GDP, CPI, unemployment, Fed Funds, and 11 othersVaries: monthly (CPI), quarterly (GDP)
Fed balance sheetFRED — WALCLWeekly
M2 money supplyFRED — M2SLMonthly
CPI inflationFRED — CPIAUCSLMonthly
PCE inflationFRED — PCEPIMonthly
FRED data is released with a lag. CPI is typically ~2 weeks after the reference period. GDP is ~1 month after the quarter ends. The values on this page reflect the latest available data, not real-time conditions. Check the Calendar page for the exact release date of the next update.

​
Tips

  • The 2s10s spread is the most-watched recession indicator in finance. When it un-inverts (goes from negative back to positive) after a sustained inversion, pay close attention. Historically, the recession follows within 3-12 months — and risk assets often sell off hard during the actual recession even if they rallied during the inversion.
  • Fed balance sheet and M2 are the “liquidity” numbers that drive risk asset cycles. BTC’s correlation with global M2 (with a ~3-month lag) has been one of the most consistent macro relationships in crypto. When M2 is expanding, BTC tends to follow. When M2 contracts, so does BTC.
  • Don’t over-interpret single data points. One hot CPI print doesn’t mean inflation is re-accelerating. One weak GDP print doesn’t mean recession. FRED data is noisy — look at 3-month trends, not individual releases.
  • Use this page for regime identification, not timing. The Economy page tells you whether you’re in a risk-on or risk-off macro regime. It does not tell you when to buy or sell this week. Combine it with Derivatives and the AI Chat for timing.
  • Ask the AI for interpretation. The numbers on this page are dense. Ask “What does the current macro environment mean for crypto?” and the Macro Agent will pull all these indicators and synthesize them into a narrative with the nuance that raw numbers can’t convey.